Analysis, Predictions and Trends: May 2015 Visa Bulletin

Regular readers of the MurthyBulletin are aware that Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS), provides monthly explanations of visa bulletin developments, as well as predictions for cutoff date movement. This latest information was provided following the release of the May 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) India: Advancement Slowing Down in Near Future

The EB2 cutoff date for India has been moving forward rapidly for the past several months. In fact, the cutoff date jumps forward by seven months, to April 15, 2008, in the May 2015 Visa Bulletin. However, the DOS reiterated that stakeholders should not to expect the pace of advancement to continue past July 2015. To the contrary, the DOS expects the cutoff date movement for EB2 India to slow down or stop by August or September 2015.

Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3) Philippines: Severe Retrogression, Future Movement Unclear

The DOS has been anticipating the need for retrogression in the EB3 category for the Philippines since November 2014. However, a surge in demand in recent weeks forced the DOS to roll back the cutoff date far more than had been expected. The latest visa bulletin has the EB3 for the Philippines retrogressing by more than seven years, to a cutoff date of July 1, 2007. The DOS hopes to be able to move this date forward throughout the summer, but currently is unable to provide any predictions regarding the extent of any such movement.

Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5) China

As expected, a cutoff date of May 1, 2013 was established for EB5 for China in the May 2015 Visa Bulletin. The DOS must wait to evaluate the ongoing demand for visa numbers in this category to determine whether additional cutoff date movement in EB China will be necessary during the current fiscal year.

Conclusion

The information provided by the DOS and Mr. Oppenheim is much appreciated, as it can be helpful for planning purposes and for properly gauging expectations. MurthyDotCom will continue to update readers with key visa bulletin information, as it becomes available.

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