Analysis, Predictions, and Trends: EB2 India May Advance Less Than Predicted

Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS), offers analysis of visa bulletin trends and predictions for the June 2015 Visa Bulletin, as he does each month. This latest information includes the disappointing possibility that the employment-based, second preference (EB2) cutoff date for India may not advance as far as previously predicted.

EB2 Worldwide

The demand in the EB2 worldwide category has “exploded,” according to Mr. Oppenheim. The level of demand is well above what was expected. The Visa Office was not alerted to the potential for this uptick in demand and does not yet know if this trend will continue. Despite this development, the EB2 worldwide category is expected to remain current. However, this could have negative consequences for EB2 India.

EB2 India

The spike in demand for visa numbers in the EB2 worldwide category means that there are few extra numbers that can be made available to EB2 India for use by the end of the fiscal year. If this heightened demand for EB2 worldwide continues, the DOS may not be able advance the EB2 India cutoff date to July or August 2009 by the end of fiscal year 2015 (FY15), as had been predicted in recent months.

EB2 and Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3) China

The DOS has advanced the EB2 China cutoff date by several years, in an effort to generate demand for visa numbers. The level of demand for EB2 China has been low enough to potentially allow excess numbers to fall down to EB3 China towards the end of FY15.

Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5) China

The May 1, 2013 cutoff date in the EB5 category for China remains unchanged in the June 2015 Visa Bulletin. The DOS does not have further predictions for this category at this time.

Family-Based, Second Preference “A” (FB2A)

The sole family-based prediction offered was for the FB2A category, which is for spouses and (unmarried, minor) children of lawful permanent residents. Mr. Oppenheim noted that the FB2A worldwide cutoff date “…is expected to continue to advance slowly. It has been advancing a little faster, to maximize number use during the first three quarters of the fiscal year. There may be a slight slow-down as we move into the final quarter.”

Conclusion

Even when the DOS and Mr. Oppenheim bring bad news, the information and predictions provided are still appreciated. It is extremely helpful in increasing an understanding of the reasons behind the movement (or lack thereof) of visa bulletin cutoff dates and, more importantly, is useful for developing immigration strategies. Subscribe to the free MurthyBulletin to remain informed regarding future visa bulletin developments.

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