DOS Predictions on Retrogression - April 2006 Update
Posted Apr 14, 2006
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The U.S. Department of State (DOS) recently provided some updated predictions regarding retrogression and visa number availability. These predictions, issued at the end of March 2006 and confirmed in the latest Visa Bulletin, published April 11, 2006, essentially recognize that the recent occurrence of forward movement for the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates cannot continue over the long term. The rapid forward movement of employment-based (EB) immigrant visa numbers was possible because the demand for visa numbers was less than had been originally predicted by the DOS. The immigrant visa numbers have moved forward sufficiently, however, to a point where there are many eligible cases. So this could result in some slowing of the priority dates in the near future. [The most current cutoff dates are always available to our readers on MurthyDotCom's Visa Bulletin page.]
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High Demand in EB3 Expected to Continue
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The DOS states that cutoff date movement will slow or stop when the dates reach the point where there is a high level of demand. This has happened in the employment-based, third preference category (EB3). The DOS states that demand for immigrant visa numbers during the month of March 2006 was expected to exceed the total for the previous three months. The EB3 dates continue to be in the span when many cases were filed, trying to meet the April 30, 2001 deadline under the LIFE Act / 245(i), to take advantage of certain provisions for those who had no legal status in the U.S.
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Schedule A Professions Could Backlog by Early FY2007
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The DOS predicts that Schedule A visa numbers for registered nurses and physical therapists will remain current through Fiscal Year (FY) 2006, which ends September 30, 2006. They anticipate that a cutoff date probably will need to be established in this category in early FY2007, as the category has a total set limit of 50,000.
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Possible Comprehensive Immigration Legislation
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This situation could change if legislation passes that addresses the issue of visa numbers in some fashion. Under one proposal, dependent family members would be eliminated from inclusion in the immigrant visa count and the overall immigrant visa numbers in the employment-based categories would be increased.
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DOS predictions are based on the current laws and limitations. Any variations would change the outcomes. This matter is part of the ongoing legislative immigration debate unfolding in Congress. At this time, the proposed immigration bill has been stalled. Until there is new law, the priority dates predictions and anticipated movement remain as explained in this article.