Priority Date Predictions as of November 2002
Posted Nov 08, 2002

Our MurthyBulletin and MurthyDotCom readers are known to watch the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin closely for the progression and availability of immigrant visa numbers. DOS has good news for both employment- and family-based cases. Visa number availability is necessary in order to file for either Adjustment of Status or Consular Processing at the last stage of the green card process. For this reason, the Visa Bulletin chart is quite important. More information on this key part of the immigration process is available on MurthyDotCom in our March 18, 2000 article, Priority Dates: How Do They Work?

According to Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS, employment-based visa numbers are expected to remain "current" for the remainder of Fiscal Year (FY) 2003 and FY2004. The FY for DOS runs October to September 30. Therefore, the numbers are expected to remain current through September 2004. The one possible exception is that the third preference "other workers" subcategory, sometimes referred to as the unskilled worker category, may backlog at some point before September 2004.

The "other worker" category, for positions requiring less than two years of experience, has often been backlogged for years at a time. At present it is "current," but may not remain so, depending upon demand in that category. This demand is greatly impacted by many of the cases filed to meet the April 30, 2001 Section 245(i) deadline. [For more information on 245(i), kindly refer to our earlier articles such as Section 245(i) Regulations Published March 26, 2001 and 245(i) Physical Presence Requirement : Gather Evidence Now, as well as others available on MurthyDotCom.]

Many of these deadline cases were filed on behalf of unskilled workers. As these cases move through the necessary Department of Labor and INS approvals, the demand for visa numbers may outpace availability. As a result, the numbers may "retrogress" (go backward) or temporarily become entirely unavailable. This potential unavailability does not impact other EB3 cases for skilled workers or professionals.

Additionally, the visa availability dates for family-based cases are expected to start moving forward more quickly in the upcoming months. Many of these categories are quite backlogged, so any progress will be welcomed. The reason for this forward movement is that the INS processing has slowed due to IBIS background checks. These processing delays have resulted in less demand for the visa numbers, which are only allocated at the time of case approval. If the numbers are moved forward, it many mean that more family-based cases may be processed via the U.S. consulates, for overseas family members. Those who have been waiting for years to reunite with family members may therefore have some good news earlier than expected.

The DOS visa dates are published on MurthyDotCom and are always accessible from our home page and other top-level pages. A link is also provided at the end of each week's MurthyBulletin.