NewsFlash! More Retrogression Predicted
Posted May 13, 2005
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The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin for June 2005 contains predictions of widespread retrogression / visa unavailability in the Employment Based (EB) categories as early as the last quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2005. People who are not familiar with the important topic of retrogression and the use of the DOS Visa Bulletin should review the explanations and articles available on MurthyDotCom. The latest information predicts retrogression and potential unavailability of EB visa numbers earlier and on a broader scale than previous predictions.
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It appears from the Visa Bulletin that numbers were calculated as of May 10, 2005. Readers may recall that H.R. 1268, which provides up to 50,000 additional visa numbers for people in the Schedule A category, was signed on May 11, 2005 [See our May 12, 2005 NewsFlash.]. Therefore, this change in the law may not have been taken into account when making the predictions. Therefore, it is possible that some information regarding retrogression will change in the July Bulletin due to those additional visa numbers.
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FY2005 Retrogression
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Due to significant demand for EB visa numbers, the allotment of FY2005 visa numbers has been greatly depleted. This is largely due to backlog reduction efforts at USCIS which have increased the numbers of adjustment-of-status approvals, each of which needs a visa number. Since USCIS intends to continue their backlog reduction efforts, the high demand for visa numbers will continue. Thus, there is an announcement that if the demand continues at the same levels, it is likely that the EB categories that are not currently retrogressed will become retrogressed in the last quarter of FY2005 (August-October). Categories that are retrogressed could be pushed back further or become all together "unavailable." The DOS states that this problem could extend to many or all EB categories worldwide. This is in contrast to the current situation where, other than the EB3 "other worker" category for unskilled / semiskilled labor, only those countries with high levels of immigration (India, Mainland China, and the Philippines) are retrogressed.
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These predictions in the Visa Bulletin are issued by the DOS, which is the government department responsible for tracking and issuing visa numbers. They are the most reliable source for this information, but their predictions are based upon demand estimates. The uncertainty regarding demand is part of the reason that this matter is not an exact science and why even the DOS can only provide very educated guesses regarding what can be expected.