Official Visa Bulletin Predictions for October 2016

Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS), supplies monthly visa bulletin explanations. This month’s update includes predictions for October 2016, which is the start of fiscal year 2017. All information in this article pertains to the final action (FA) cutoff dates, as no information has been provided related to the dates for filing (DF).

Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1)

The DOS predicts that EB1 will return to being current for all countries of chargeability, including India and China, in the October 2016 Visa Bulletin.

Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)

The EB2 worldwide cutoff date is expected to return to being current in the October 2016 Visa Bulletin. The EB2 China final action cutoff date of January 1, 2010 remains unchanged in September, as expected. The cutoff date in this category is expected to advance to late 2011 or early 2012 in the October 2016 Visa Bulletin. The DOS expects the EB2 cutoff date for India to shift to early 2007 in the October 2016 Visa Bulletin. No further predictions were provided for EB2 India.

Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3)

The EB3 worldwide cutoff date is quite favorable in the September 2016 Visa Bulletin. However, the DOS does not expect this category to become current in upcoming months. Mr. Oppenheim anticipates that there may be additional demand for visa numbers in this category that is yet to materialize.

EB3 India is expected to continue to have a 2005 cutoff date in October 2016. The DOS anticipates advancements of just a few weeks per month in this heavily backlogged category.

The EB3 cutoff date for China matches the cutoff for EB2 China. The DOS expects that this date will advance to late 2012 or early 2013 in October 2016. Thus, the trend toward downgrades is expected to continue, until demand equalizes the cutoff dates.

Employment-Based, Fourth Preference (EB4)

In October 2016, the EB4 category for India and Mexico are expected to return to being current. Meanwhile, EB4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are likely to move to at least a summer 2015 cutoff date.

Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5)

No predictions are possible for EB5 at this time.


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