Analysis, Predictions, and Trends: Nov 2014 Visa Bulletin Update

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provides official insights into the visa bulletin on a monthly basis. This information comes directly from Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, to members of the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA). These predictions are in addition to those provided in the November 2014 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 India Retrogression in Begins in November

As has been widely reported, the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India will retrogress significantly, effective November 1, 2014. As of this writing, the DOS continues to predict that the February 15, 2005 priority date for EB2 India will not advance in the near future.

EB5 China to Retrogress Possibly by May 2015

The employment-based, fifth preference (EB5) investor category is current for all countries of chargeability. However, due to heavy demand by Chinese nationals, the DOS anticipates establishing a cutoff date for EB5 China. The DOS previously predicted that this would occur in June 2015, but now expects the cutoff date to be instituted earlier, in May 2015.

EB3 China Likely to be More Favorable than EB2

The cutoff date in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category for China is just a few weeks behind the cutoff date of EB2 China in the November 2014 Visa Bulletin. The DOS expects a reversal of this situation, resulting in a cutoff date in EB2 China that is less favorable than EB3 China. When this transpires, it is expected to generate what are known as downgrades, with people eligible for EB2 pursuing filings in the EB3 category. This phenomenon will likely continue until it generates enough demand in EB3 China to reverse the situation.

Additional Predictions for Employment-Based Categories

The DOS expects that EB2 China will advance by three to five weeks per month. The predictions are move favorable for EB3 China, which is expected to progress rapidly until the demand from the described downgrades is felt. EB3 India movement will be limited to one or two weeks per month. The cutoff date for EB3 Philippines and EB3 Mexico are predicted to match the worldwide category. But, this could change later in the year for the Philippines.

Family-Based Predictions

It is expected that, each month, the family-based categories will advance between a few weeks to two months. The DOS will update family-based predictions as the year progresses.


The predictions provided by the DOS may not always be welcome news, but it does help employers and foreign nationals with developing immigration strategies and plans. The Murthy Law Firm understands how important this information is, and closely tracks news and predictions in order to assist clients and others, reporting the information on MurthyDotCom. To remain abreast of news related to the visa bulletin and other important immigration matters, subscribe to the free MurthyBulletin.

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is of a general nature and may not apply to any specific or particular circumstance. It is not to be construed as legal advice nor presumed indefinitely up to date.