Analysis, Predictions, and Trends: Dec 2014 Visa Bulletin Update

Each month, the U.S. Department of State (DOS), provides visa bulletin insights and predictions, when possible, of future visa bulletin content. This information is provided to the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) by Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division. For December 2014, however, there is little new to report.

No New Projections on Visa Cutoff Dates

The DOS does not have any new projections for cutoff date movement, and the contents of the December 2014 Visa Bulletin was consistent with prior DOS predictions. It is expected that the previously announced predictions will remain unaltered for the next several months. Of course, if there is some unexpected development that could impact the movement of cutoff dates, it is possible that the DOS would revise predictions sooner than that.

China EB3 and EB5 Movement

The predictions for employment-based, third preference (EB3) China, are that the category will continue to advance in upcoming months, but not as rapidly as during the 2014 fiscal year. This slowing of EB3 cutoff dates for China is intended to avoid increased demand from employment-based, second preference (EB2) to EB3 “downgrade” requests. A “downgrade” is when the cutoff date for the EB3 category is more favorable than the EB2. Depending upon demand levels, it is possible that the EB3 for Chinese nationals could experience rapid movement, once again, starting in February 2015.

For the time being, the employment-based, fifth preference (EB5) category is current for all countries of chargeability. The DOS notes, however, that EB5 China may require updates beginning in the January 2015 Visa Bulletin. It was previously predicted that the DOS may need to establish a cutoff date for EB5 China by May 2015.


The updates and predictions provided by the DOS are greatly appreciated, even though the news may not always be good. MurthyDotCom will continue to provide readers with the latest visa bulletin information as it becomes available.


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Disclaimer: The information provided here is of a general nature and may not apply to any specific or particular circumstance. It is not to be construed as legal advice nor presumed indefinitely up to date.